Week 4: Oklahoma State Opens Conference Play vs. Texas Tech

Posted on September 22, 2018

By Michael Doutey

The Oklahoma State Cowboys passed their first test of the season last week with a 44-21 win over Boise State. But it doesn’t get any easier this week as conference play begins. Texas Tech and their pass happy offense strolls into Stillwater with some confidence. Tech seems to have found their new gun slinger in true freshman, Alan Bowman.

It is always an interesting matchup when Tech and OSU get together. There have been plenty of shootouts over the years. But under Mike Gundy, OSU has had a lot of success against the Red Raiders. In the Gundy era, OSU is 11-2 and have won nine straight dating back to 2009. Over that nine game win streak, OSU’s average margin of victory has been 48.4 to 29.

On a bizarre note, today is the 11th anniversary of Mike Gundy’s rant. Who was OSU’s opponent that day? Texas Tech in Stillwater. OSU won that game 49-45 in what was remembered as the Brandon Pettigrew superman leap into the endzone for the go ahead score.

The past two seasons OSU flirted with losses against Tech. Mental mistakes and turnovers both aided to much closer games. Tech has also had two successful onside kicks in each of the past two seasons against OSU. Tech would love nothing more than to come into Stillwater and upset the Cowboys and snap their nine game losing skid to OSU.

Let’s get to Know Texas Tech.

This is the same old Tech team we’ve all seen before. They love to throw the football. Tech is really excited about their brand new starting quarterback in Alan Bowman. Bowman threw for a nutty 605 yards last week against Houston. He’s currently fourth in the country throwing the football for 1,160 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions.

Tech is pretty balanced thus far in play calling. Tech is 53 percent pass and 47 percent run in their play calling.

The Red Raider pass offense is ranked really high. They are averaging 448 passing yards per game (1st in the country). They average 9 yards per completion (ranked 27th). For reference, Boise State averages 9.4 yards per completion. Tech completes 70.7 percent of their passes. Boise State completes 71.8 percent of their passes. There are some similarities between the two. Tech uses a much faster tempo, but both teams will use underneath routes to set up deep throws. 

The passing numbers closely resemble Boise State’s. OSU did a really good job of cutting yards per completion down for Boise a week ago from 9.4 yards per completion to 6.8 last week. OSU will need to do the same today.

Tech’s rushing numbers are pretty average. They average 175.7 rush yards per game (ranks 71st). They average four yards per carry (ranks 86th). They have rushed for 527 yards total this season (ranks 68th). If OSU wants to have success, they are going to have to control the line of scrimmage and restrict any running success, forcing third and longs. Tech does like to run the football in the redzone. They have 13 rushing TD’s already this season, which ranks third in the nation.

We heard all about the much improved Tech defense in the offseason. By no surprise, that hasn’t come true at all. Tech allows 161.7 yards per game rushing (78th in the country), allows 4.4 yards per rush (87th in the country) and has allowed a total of 485 yards rushing this season (ranks 82). Those numbers are bad. Their pass defense is way worse.

Tech allows 292.7 pass yards per game (ranks 112), allows 7.6 yards per completion (ranks 86th and Corn averages 9.6 yards per completion), and the Red Raiders have allowed 878 passing yards this season (ranks 111th).

Tech has played Ole Miss, Lamar and Houston. They shut out Lamar in week two. So, give them their props for that. But against two real opponents, they’ve given up 96 points. Against Ole Miss, they gave up 3.6 points per possession. Against Houston they allowed 3.3 points per drive. Those are AWFUL numbers. That is giving up a little more than a field goal every time your opponent touches the ball. For example, if OSU has 14 drives and averages three points per drive, then OSU will have scored 42 points.

Tech’s receivers are pretty good. They have two giants on the outside in Antoine Wesley  (six-foot-five) and TJ Vasher (six-foot-six). Wesley leads the team in catches with 23 and yards with 413. He also lead the team in touchdown catches with four and averages 18 yards per catch. Ja’Deion High and KeSean Carter are both the inside slot guys. High has 14 catches for 222 yards and two TDs. Vasher has 13 catches for 211 yards and 2 TDs. Carter has 14 catches for 143 yards and averages 10.2 yards per reception.

Rushing the football is freshman Ta’Zhawn Henry. He leads the team with 35 carries for 166 yards and six touchdowns. He’s taken over for the injured Tre King and Da’Leon Ward.

Tech is going to play fast, like they always do. It will be important for OSU to find a way to control the line of scrimmage, tackle well in space and do it without many substitutions.

Keys to the Game

OSU needs to stop Tech’s run game

Iowa State has been really good at stopping Tech over the past two seasons. They’ve allowed just 23 points to Tech in the past two seasons. They did so with just three down linemen and two linebackers, which allowed them to use six defensive backs. That’s what teams did to OSU last year and it slowed them down. The apron defense allowed defensive backs to matchup on receivers instead of linebackers. It also forced many third and longs. If OSU forces Tech into 3rd and 7 or longer, then OSU can get after the quarterback which is what they do best. If they can get some early hits on Bowman early, maybe they can rattle the freshman making his first career road start.

Run the Football

Justice Hill is fresh. He has just 34 rush attempts all season and just two catches. He has 36 touches through three games for 12 touches a game. That is three fewer touches than Gundy has wanted per game. So, let him loose today. In two games against Tech, he has 290 rush yards against Tech on 48 carries, good for six yards per carry. Let him loose today. Let him wear down the Tech defense and go on long sustained drives. It will keep OSU’s defense fresh and will wear down the Tech defense.

Don’t Turn the Ball Over

The past two seasons OSU has had key turnovers that let Tech back in the game. In 2016, OSU was going into the half driving. Jalen McCleskey fumbled and Tech got a quick TD to tie the game at 28 before halftime. OSU was scoring at will on Tech. They could have gone up 35-21 at the half and would have had the ball first in the second half. It let Tech back in the game and caused it to be way closer than it could have been. Last year OSU was up 7-0 and was in the redzone again. But Rudolph sailed a pass over McCleskey’s head and Tech took it back to the house. OSU could have been up 14-0, but instead they were tied 7-7 and in a dog fight on the road. Take care of the ball because Tech’s offense always make you pay.

Tackle in Space

OSU hardly allowed any yards after catch last week. It really made a huge difference in the game. They did not allow any big plays. They really need to do that again today. Don’t allow Tech any easy yards. Bottle them up and be physical. It isn’t something Tech responds well to.

Prediction

OSU is the better team. But Tech can come in and win this game, there is no doubt about it. If OSU turns the ball over, isn’t ready to play on defense, can’t run the football or is just sloppy in the game, then OSU can loose. But I expect this team to come out focused. This team had a bit of an edge to them that they have been missing the past couple seasons. Tonight is the first conference night game since Bedlam in 2015. I’m expecting the team to be fired up. OSU wins today 48-38.

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