By Michael Doutey
Oklahoma State heads into their third week of Big 12 play hosting an Iowa State Cyclone team who is desperate to win after falling to a 1-3 start. The Cyclones are coming off a tough 17-14 road loss at TCU last weekend and are looking to get back on track versus the Cowboys.
Meanwhile, the Pokes are hoping to continue to play better after their embarrassing loss two weeks ago at home to Texas Tech. OSU did an excellent job of that last weekend against Kansas and now look to do so again against better competition. With a win, OSU could be sitting in good shape at 5-1 heading into a showdown with Kansas State in Manhattan a week before a much needed off week. A loss would result in tons of panic, despair and fans will certainly be calling for a change at quarterback.
This is an important game for both sides. For the first time all season, it appears the weather could impact the game. Weather.com is predicting thunderstorms in the morning with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. In the event of a weather delay, OSU will allow fans to exit Boone Pickens Stadium and then reenter once the game is about to get underway.
Without further ado, here are this weeks 10 thoughts heading into OSU’s game with Iowa State.
ONE: Injury Update
Injuries are a big question heading into this game. WHAT WE KNOW. Darrion Daniels is out for the season, so he obviously will not play. Enoch Smith will start in his place. Arlington Hambright was seen Tuesday after practice in a boot. I doubt he plays. Expect Tevin Jenkins to make the start at left tackle and Shane Richard to start at right tackle. Dillon Stoner was seen in full pads so he could return this week. Calvin Bundage was seen in full pads, although he is still walking with a limp. AJ Green and Malcolm Rodriguez were wearing non-contact green jerseys after Tuesday’s practice. Stoner, Bundage, Green and Rodriguez will be names to watch in warmups tomorrow.
TWO: Battle of the Line of Scrimmage
The battle of the line of scrimmage will be huge in this game. Both Iowa State and OSU best player is at running back. David Montgomery and Justice Hill are really tough to stop. However, OSU is really good at stopping the run. They allow 3.1 yards per rush, which ranks 27th in the country. The Cyclones best feature on defense is run stopping. They allow just 3.18 yards per rush, which ranks 32nd. Whoever can run the ball best while stopping the run on defense will be in good shape to win, especially if it is raining during the game.
THREE: Iowa State’s Offense Fits OSU’s Defense
Iowa State’s offense fits OSU’s defense. The Cyclones don’t move incredibly fast. They aren’t like Texas Tech, OU or West Virginia. They also like to set everything up with their run game. Montgomery left last week’s game in the fourth quarter with an arm injury. He’s been dealing with it all season, but Saturday it was re-injured. Iowa State’s head coach, Matt Campbell, said that Montgomery is day-to-day. But even if he isn’t able to go, I wouldn’t expect too much of a shake up offensively. Zeb Noland will make the start Saturday for the injured Kyle Kempt. Noland isn’t lighting the world on fire. He is only averaging 6.6 yards per attempt. OSU is solid at stoping the run, as we already pointed out. So if OSU can force Iowa State in third-and-longs, then OSU can really get after the quarterback. That is what OSU is best at. Now, OSU can’t come out and lay their helmet on the field and have success. They have to come out and play well and play focused. If they do that, they can have a good day.
FOUR: OSU’s Sack Success Should Continue
Iowa State has allowed eight sacks in four games, an average of two per game. OSU leads the nation in sacks with 24. OSU averages 4.8 sacks a game. If OSU can control the line of scrimmage and force longer third down conversions, OSU can get after Noland and possibly get him to cough up the football.
FIVE: Containing Hakeem Butler
OSU’s defense can get burned from time to time deep. But instead of having a bunch of different receivers to worry about, Iowa State goes almost exclusively to six-foot-six junior, Hakeem Butler. He leads the Cyclones in yards with 311 yards and averages 19.4 yards per catch. Want to know how tough of a cover he can be, just ask OU fans. The best game he has had all season was against OU. He caught five passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns. Over half of his production this season came that week. But he can be silent, like last week against TCU when he caught just two passes for 14 yards. When he can get loose he can dominate like he did against OU. OSU’s secondary needs to step up this week after having a bad outing against Tech and then gave up some bad scoring plays against Kansas.
SIX: Penalty Issues
OSU has begun a concerning trend this season. They are committing way too many penalties. In just five games, OSU has committed 36 penalties, an average of 7.2 penalties per game ranking 85th in the country. OSU averages 71.4 yards per came in penalties, good for 102nd in the nation. OSU got away with penalties last week at Kansas, but that will not last the rest of the season. OSU has to be way more disciplined in this game and going forward.
SEVEN: 3rd Down an Advantage for OSU
OSU isn’t great on third down offense. OSU converts just 40.6 percent of their third down tries, which ranks tied for 62nd in the country with Hawaii. However, Iowa State’s defense isn’t great at stopping teams on third down. Iowa State allows their opponent to convert 45.2 percent of their third down tries. OSU isn’t the same deep threat and big play offense from seasons past. But they need to be able to sustain drives. This is an advantage for OSU that they need to take advantage of. Meanwhile, OSU’s defense does a nice job of stopping teams on third down. OSU allows their opponent to convert 37.8 percent of their third down attempts, ranking 61st in the country. Iowa State’s offense isn’t great at third down conversions, only converting 35.7 of their third down attempts, which ranks 99th.
EIGHT: OSU Struggling Inside BPS
OSU has been really good on the road the past couple seasons. The Cowboys have won seven straight road games. But in Big 12 play, OSU has struggled recently in Stillwater. OSU is 2-4 in their last six Big 12 home games. Those wins have come against Kansas and Baylor while the losses are against Texas Tech, Kansas State, OU, and TCU. Iowa State would be the best win inside BPS in conference play since beating Texas Tech 45-44 back in 2016. We’ll see if those home issues are resolved for tomorrow’s game or if the Pokes still struggle in front of the home crowd.
NINE: The Cornelius to Wolf Connection
Was last week a one time thing between Landon Wolf and Taylor Cornelius? Or is there something to last weeks outburst in Wolf’s first start? Wolf lead the Pokes in receiving yards (116) and catches (six) against Kansas. Wolf will make his second career start, replacing the departed Jalen McCleskey. To compare, McCleskey had 15 catches (which still ranks second on the team) for 155 yards and two touchdowns. Wolf has just 10 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown. I feel like there is a good connection between Corn and Wolf. They spent a season or more on the second team together. They have a rapport. Tylan Wallace, who leads the Pokes in catches (30) and yards (546 — 7th in the nation), spent a season with Corn in practice with the second team and we’ve seen the strong connection they’ve had to start this season. I think there is something to this and we’ll see more big plays from Wolf this week.
TEN: Even in Adversity Keep Running the Football
OSU will run into an issue trying to run the football. Iowa State hangs their hat on stopping the run. As we mentioned earlier, the Cyclones only allow 3.1 yards per rush. OSU averages 5.6 yards per run. But if early in the game OSU has issues running the football, they shouldn’t stop running the ball. Justice Hill is too good to move away from the run game like they did against Texas Tech. Hill needs to run the ball at least 22 times this week. Iowa State shouldn’t score as much as Tech did, so it will not be as easy to move away from the run game. Hill might have several carries where he is getting just a yard or two, but he always finds a way to bust a long one. OSU must keep the ball on the ground and create their own success in doing it.
